Millions of retirees may see only a slight bump in monthly checks next year, and some advocates warn it still won’t keep pace with rising prices.
A preliminary forecast from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) pegs the 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) at 2.5 percent, nudging up from last month’s 2.4 percent outlook. If the projection holds, the average retired worker would receive roughly $46 more per month—but will that be enough?
The Social Security Administration bases annual COLAs on third‑quarter changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W). TSCL argues that shrinking Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey samples could distort that index, potentially understating inflation faced by older Americans relying on fixed incomes.
Why the 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment may not match real inflation
COLAs are supposed to protect purchasing power, yet some essentials—think prescription drugs or homeowners’ insurance—often outpace the headline CPI‑W. When BLS staff and budget cuts reduce the number of businesses surveyed, “one‑off” price spikes can slip through the cracks. Even a 0.1‑point misread could cost a retiree more than $150 a year. Frustrating, right?
TSCL’s fourth consecutive upward revision reflects sticky inflation in groceries, medical services, and housing. Their economists note that while energy prices cooled, core categories stayed stubborn. Want a quick snapshot of how COLAs have swung lately?
| Year | Actual or projected COLA | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9 % | Largest since 1982 |
| 2023 | 8.7 % | Four‑decade record |
| 2024 | 3.2 % | Back toward trend |
| 2025* | 2.5 % | Current projection |
| 2026* | 2.5 % | Early forecast |
Steps every Social Security beneficiary can take before the 2026 increase arrives
Before next summer’s CPI‑W readings lock in the final figure, consider these moves:
- Review your budget now. Identify essentials whose costs are rising faster than 3 percent.
- Delay large discretionary purchases. If inflation cools, buying power improves.
- Check eligibility for need‑based programs. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Medicare Savings Programs can plug shortfalls.
- Set up a my Social Security account. You’ll see the official COLA notice as soon as it posts.
- Track TSCL updates. Their monthly bulletins flag any change in the forecast.
Taking these steps early may soften the blow if the official COLA lands below actual household inflation. A 2.5 percent raise beats no raise at all, yet ongoing questions about BLS data accuracy mean retirees should brace for a gap between benefits and real‑world prices. Consequently, budget vigilance and proactive use of assistance programs remain the best defense. Have more questions? Keep an eye on CPI‑W reports this fall—those three months decide every dollar of next year’s increase.