A new forecast says couples who both worked could see benefits fall by nearly a quarter once a key trust fund runs dry.
Social Security’s safety net may feel a lot thinner by 2033. According to the non‑partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a typical two‑income retired couple would collect about $18,100 less per year than they would receive today. The reason? The Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in late 2032, leaving incoming payroll taxes to cover only 76 percent of scheduled payments.
Why the trust fund’s scheduled depletion in late 2032 matters for every future retiree couple
When the OASI pot empties, the law requires across‑the‑board cuts. CRFB calculates a 24 percent reduction right out of the gate. That percentage could climb above 30 percent by the end of the century if Congress does nothing. How much less money different married households could actually receive in their monthly checks? Not every household feels the shortfall equally. Take a look at the spread:
| Household type | Estimated yearly cut* |
|---|---|
| Single‑earner, average wage | $13,600 |
| Dual‑earner, low income | $11,000 |
| Dual‑earner, average income | $18,100 |
| Dual‑earner, high income | $24,000 |
*Figures are in nominal 2033 dollars, CRFB analysis.
The Social Security Administration counted close to 67 million beneficiaries in June. Surveys from AARP show two in three retirees rely “substantially” on their check, while another fifth count on it “somewhat.” No wonder 96 percent of adults rank the program as important.
New tax break in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could deepen the funding gap even sooner
CRFB’s estimate is slightly gloomier than the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report (which predicted a 23 percent cut in 2033). Why the difference? The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA), signed over the July 4 holiday, temporarily raises the senior standard deduction and trims income‑tax revenue flowing back to Social Security. Before you panic, Congress has tools—though none are painless:
- Raise the payroll‑tax rate on current workers.
- Lift or eliminate the wage cap so earnings above $168,600 are taxed.
- Gradually raise the full‑retirement age for future retirees.
- Trim benefits for high earners or tweak the inflation formula.
Which combination will win support? That’s the billion‑dollar question. First, don’t ignore the warning lights. Near‑retirees may want to boost private savings, delay claiming if health permits, or diversify income streams. Meanwhile, every voter can press elected officials for a long‑term fix—because leaving a 24 percent cliff in place helps no one.